Scotland’s onshore economy grew by 0.7 per cent in real terms during the second quarter of 2026.The first estimate of GDP for April to June was published by the Scottish Government’s Chief Statistician on 26 August 2026. The estimate follows growth of 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year.In the UK as a whole, GDP grew by 0.4 per cent during the second quarter of 2026, after growth of 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
The Scottish figure relates to onshore GDP. Offshore oil and gas extraction is not included.
The second-quarter estimate records growth across major sectors. Services output grew by 0.6 per cent, production grew by 0.9 per cent, construction grew by 0.3 per cent, and agriculture, forestry and fishing grew by 1.7 per cent.
The Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants sector made the largest contribution to quarterly GDP growth.
The Monthly Path Through The Quarter
The monthly GDP estimate for June 2026 shows output growing by 0.5 per cent during the month.
April recorded growth of 0.5 per cent. May recorded a fall of 0.1 per cent. The first estimate for the quarter therefore contains a pattern of growth, contraction and renewed growth across the three months.
GDP statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. The first quarterly estimate is produced to provide early information on economic performance and is subject to revision as more complete data becomes available.
The Scottish Government’s publication states that the estimates are official statistics in development. That designation reflects ongoing work to improve methodology, data sources and quality.
Recent GDP Record
The second-quarter figure follows a period of weaker recorded growth.
Scotland’s onshore GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter of 2025 recorded growth of 0.2 per cent after 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter.
The August 2026 Scottish Economic Bulletin reported that business activity had weakened through the second quarter according to the monthly Purchasing Managers Index survey, although the pace of contraction eased slightly in June.
The same bulletin recorded that economic conditions remained shaped by inflation, energy prices, interest rates, labour market conditions, business investment and global uncertainty.
The Scottish Fiscal Commission’s January 2026 forecasts expected GDP growth of 1.3 per cent in 2026 and 2027. Its work provides the economic and fiscal forecasts used for Scottish Budget scrutiny.
Sector Movements
The second-quarter estimate records growth in services, production, construction and agriculture, forestry and fishing.
Services form the largest part of Scotland’s onshore economy. A 0.6 per cent increase in services therefore has a large effect on the total figure.
Production includes manufacturing, electricity and gas, water supply, waste management, mining and quarrying. Its 0.9 per cent quarterly increase contributed to the overall rise.
Construction grew by 0.3 per cent. Agriculture, forestry and fishing grew by 1.7 per cent, although that sector represents a smaller share of overall output.
The Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants sector made the largest contribution. That sector includes retail, wholesale, motor trades, accommodation and food services.
The figure therefore sits near several other current indicators: business concern about falling demand and energy costs, tourism sentiment, household spending pressure and continuing interest in public and private infrastructure investment.
The Longer Output Record
Scotland’s GDP figures are part of a statistical series used to track output over time.
The Scottish Government states that GDP statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. They do not measure household income, business profitability, regional distribution, public-service quality, job security, company ownership or local retention of value.
For that reason, the GDP release gives one part of the economic record.
The second-quarter figure records higher onshore output during spring 2026. The supporting documents record sector movements and the monthly path through the quarter. The wider economic record includes business surveys, fiscal forecasts, labour-market data, inflation, productivity and public-finance assessments.
The next monthly and quarterly releases will show whether the second-quarter growth is revised and whether the pattern continues into the second half of 2026.
Sources
Scotland’s GDP 2026 Quarter 2 (first estimate), 26 August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/news/scotlands-gdp-2026-quarter-2-first-estimate/
GDP First Quarterly Estimate 2026 Q2 (April to June), 26 August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2026-q2/
GDP First Quarterly Estimate 2026 Q2 — Key Points, 26 August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2026-q2/pages/key-points/
GDP First Quarterly Estimate 2026 Q2 — Output compared to the previous quarter, 26 August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2026-q2/pages/output-compared-to-the-previous-quarter/
GDP Monthly Estimate: June 2026, 26 August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-june-2026/
GDP Monthly Estimate: June 2026 — Key Points, 26 August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-june-2026/pages/key-points/
GDP First Quarterly Estimate 2026 Q1, 28 May 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2026-q1/
GDP First Quarterly Estimate 2025 Q2, 27 August 2025
https://www.gov.scot/publications/first-estimate-of-gdp-2025-q2/
Scottish Economic Bulletin: August 2026 — Business Conditions, August 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-economic-bulletin-august-2026/pages/5/
Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts — January 2026, 13 January 2026
https://fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-january-2026/
GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2026, 13 August 2026
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/latest
