The Scottish Government and South of Scotland Enterprise have unveiled a £31.8 billion pipeline of 202 potential investments across Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders. The headline figure is large enough to transform the regional economy, but it is not £31.8 billion of committed spending. The projects extend over 15 to 20 years and depend on combinations of planning consent, private finance, grid connections, transport, housing and a workforce large enough to build and operate them.
A new economic study presented to the Convention of the South of Scotland in Dumfries on 5 October has identified 202 projects with a combined potential investment value of £31.8 billion.
The opportunities span clean energy, energy transition, artificial intelligence, deep technology, advanced manufacturing, natural capital, life sciences, tourism and the creative industries.
If all of the opportunities were realised, South of Scotland Enterprise says they could support approximately 73,900 construction full-time-equivalent job years and another 7,900 operational full-time-equivalent jobs.
The first figure is not 73,900 permanent construction jobs. One job year represents one person employed full-time for one year. A project employing 100 workers for five years would therefore account for 500 job years.
The second figure represents the estimated longer-term employment associated with the full pipeline if the projects proceed.
The numbers are only projections.
Neither the Scottish Government nor South of Scotland Enterprise describes the £31.8 billion as committed investment. Their language is deliberately conditional: potential projects, potential investment and opportunities that could be realised over the next two decades.
The Headline Arrived Before the Full Report
The £31.8 billion figure was announced on 5 October, when Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth chaired the Convention of the South of Scotland.
The full Regional Transformational Opportunities report was not published alongside the announcement.
The Scottish Government says it is due to be published during the week beginning 12 October.
That means the public can currently see the aggregate figure of £31.8 billion, the total of 202 projects, the broad sectors involved and the projected employment impact, but not yet the complete project-by-project evidence behind those totals.
Until the full report is released, it is not possible from the published material to establish how many of the 202 projects are already funded, how many have planning permission, how many have secured land or grid connections, how many are at feasibility stage, and how many remain longer-term concepts.
That information will determine how the £31.8 billion figure should ultimately be understood.
Some of the Investment Is Already Real
The pipeline should not be dismissed as purely theoretical.
Several major investments in the South of Scotland are already sufficiently advanced to have planning permission, public funding, construction contracts or work under way.
The clearest example is Center Parcs Scottish Borders.
The proposed village near Hawick and Selkirk received planning approval in December 2025 and construction is now under way. Center Parcs describes the development as an investment of more than £450 million, with up to 700 lodges and apartments and an expected opening in summer 2029.
Scottish Borders Council says the project is expected to support around 750 to 800 jobs during construction and approximately 1,200 permanent jobs when operating.
The Scottish Government has committed up to £30 million over five years towards enabling infrastructure. South of Scotland Enterprise subsequently notified the UK Competition and Markets Authority of a proposed £30.033 million subsidy to Center Parcs Scotland Limited.
The subsidy assessment states that the public funding represents about 6.7 per cent of the estimated project cost and is intended to unlock the much larger private investment required for the resort.
This is therefore a project for which the words investment pipeline have a relatively concrete meaning: planning permission exists, public financial support has been identified and construction has started.
A £24 Million Food Plant Is Already Being Built
The same is true on a smaller scale at Ecclefechan.
Pickstock Telford is constructing a beef-processing facility valued at more than £24 million, supported by a £4.7 million investment from South of Scotland Enterprise.
The development is expected to create around 90 permanent jobs, with approximately 250 jobs supported during construction.
Again, this is not simply an entry in a long-range aspiration document. Construction is under way.
Other Opportunities Are Much Earlier in Their Development
The opposite end of the pipeline can be seen at Chapelcross, near Annan.
A developer has lodged an application for planning permission in principle for a large technology campus containing eight data-centre buildings, associated industrial development, training facilities and electrical infrastructure.
The developer describes the potential investment at approximately £16.5 billion and the power capacity at around 1GW.
If that figure forms part of the £31.8 billion Regional Transformational Opportunities total, a single proposed development would account for more than half of the entire headline pipeline.
The full report has not yet been published, so Modern Scot cannot presently establish whether the Chapelcross £16.5 billion estimate is included in the £31.8 billion total.
The comparison nevertheless shows why project status is critical when very large proposals are aggregated into regional investment figures.
Chapelcross currently has an application for permission in principle. It does not have final planning permission for a completed 1GW campus, and the developer’s £16.5 billion figure is a potential investment estimate rather than money already committed or spent.
Its proposed construction period extends to 2035.
The Region Is Combining Projects at Very Different Stages
The Regional Transformational Opportunities exercise is intended to identify economic opportunities rather than produce a ledger of completed investment.
South of Scotland Enterprise says the work includes projects of regional and national significance alongside clusters of smaller developments that could collectively reshape the economy.
That approach can be useful for long-range infrastructure and skills planning because governments need to anticipate investment before it reaches construction.
It also creates a risk of apparently precise totals combining projects with very different probabilities of delivery.
A £450 million resort under construction and a multibillion-pound technology proposal awaiting planning consideration may both appear within the same economic pipeline while occupying completely different stages of development.
The full report will need to make those stages visible if the £31.8 billion total is to be used for public policy rather than simply promotion.
The Report Itself Says the Region Needs More Infrastructure
South of Scotland Enterprise does not present the investment as automatic.
Its announcement says the study examines the infrastructure, workforce and policy conditions required for the projects to proceed.
Russel Griggs, chair of the agency, said the opportunity depends on having the investment, housing, transport and skills required to support it.
Skills Development Scotland similarly said the report identifies challenges that must be addressed before the potential can be realised.
Those constraints are not new.
The South of Scotland Regional Economic Partnership has spent several years identifying housing, transport and skills as three of the region’s principal barriers to economic growth.
Its 2021 Regional Economic Strategy called for improved housing, transport, digital connectivity and development land, together with efforts to attract and retain skilled workers.
By January 2026, the Convention of the South of Scotland was still identifying housing, transport and skills as priority areas requiring coordinated action.
Housing Is an Economic Constraint, Not Only a Social One
Housing shortages are particularly important when investment projections assume thousands of additional workers.
The Scottish Government’s Rural and Islands Housing Action Plan explicitly links housing availability to economic growth, warning that shortages of suitable affordable housing can prevent employers recruiting and retaining workers.
The South of Scotland has developed its own Housing Action Plan partly because anticipated economic growth cannot be separated from where additional workers would live.
Discussion at the Convention has previously identified the decline of smaller private housebuilders since the 2008 financial crisis as a structural problem in the region.
Large projects can therefore create labour demand without automatically creating the homes required for that workforce.
The £31.8 billion opportunity and the housing programme have to be read together.
The Skills Baseline Does Not Yet Include the £31.8 Billion Pipeline
Skills Development Scotland’s existing regional labour-market forecasts come with another important limitation.
Its Regional Skills Assessments are policy and investment neutral. They describe the baseline economy but do not incorporate investments that are unconfirmed or still at planning and development stage.
SDS explicitly says such forecasts should be supplemented with local knowledge about future transformational opportunities.
That means the estimated 7,900 operational jobs in the new investment study are not already reflected in the normal labour-market baseline.
If even a substantial proportion of the pipeline proceeds, demand for construction workers, engineers, technicians, manufacturing staff, digital specialists, hospitality workers and other occupations could rise considerably above the current forecast.
The difficulty is timing. Training too few people creates labour shortages. Training workers for projects that never proceed creates another problem. The purpose of separating committed projects from speculative or early-stage proposals is therefore not merely statistical. It affects education, apprenticeships, housing and migration planning.
The Grid Will Decide the Timing of Some Projects
Some of the projects in the new pipeline are in clean energy, energy transition, AI and advanced manufacturing, sectors that can require significant electricity-network capacity.
Britain’s electricity connection system is currently undergoing major reform after the connection queue expanded far beyond the amount of generation and demand expected actually to be built.
NESO says access to the grid can determine whether an industrial or technology investment proceeds or is delayed.
The system operator is replacing the previous first-come, first-served approach with arrangements intended to prioritise projects that are sufficiently advanced and aligned with strategic energy requirements.
South-west Scotland is also connected to a transmission system already carrying large north-to-south power flows.
NESO’s current Electricity Ten Year Statement identifies the B6 boundary between SP Transmission and National Grid Electricity Transmission as constrained by the Harker–Moffat 400kV circuit, with a base transfer capability of 6.7GW.
That boundary is not evidence that every proposed South of Scotland development cannot connect. Individual projects connect at different voltages and locations, while substantial network reinforcement is planned. But it does mean that grid-dependent projects cannot be treated as economically deliverable solely because land and private investment interest exist.
A connection offer, connection date and required network reinforcement can all affect project timing and cost.
Clean-Energy Generation Faces the Opposite Grid Problem
Renewable-generation projects face a related problem from the other direction.
The South of Scotland contains substantial wind development and further renewable proposals. Scotland as a whole already experiences periods when electricity generation exceeds the ability of the transmission system to move that power south.
Grid reinforcement can therefore determine how quickly new generation reaches operation and how frequently existing projects are constrained.
At the same time, major new industrial and data-centre demand could potentially absorb more electricity within Scotland and reduce some long-distance transfers if located appropriately.
The economic opportunities in the new report are therefore interdependent. Energy projects may require more network capacity, while major electricity consumers may alter where that capacity is most useful.
The £31.8 billion total does not reveal those dependencies on its own.
Transport Is Another Constraint Already Identified by the Region
The South of Scotland covers a large rural geography stretching from the Irish Sea to the North Sea and from the Central Belt to the English border.
Major investment projects require construction traffic, freight movement and access for workers.
Dumfries and Galloway Council told the Scottish Government this year that national infrastructure investment processes need to reflect the cost and geography of rural areas more effectively. Its submission to the 2027–37 national infrastructure strategy specifically highlighted transport, housing, digital and energy infrastructure.
In the Borders, one of the region’s largest confirmed investments — Center Parcs — has already required changes to the A7 and new access infrastructure.
The long-discussed extension of the Borders Railway towards Hawick and Carlisle remains at Strategic Outline Business Case stage rather than being a funded construction project.
Transport therefore appears in the £31.8 billion opportunity in two different ways: as an investment opportunity in its own right and as enabling infrastructure required by other investments.
The Scale of Local Public Investment Is Much Smaller Than £31.8 Billion
Comparing the headline pipeline with existing public capital programmes illustrates its scale.
Dumfries and Galloway Council invested £74 million through its capital programme in 2025–26, its largest programme to date.
Scottish Borders Council’s Borders Innovation Park at Tweedbank is a £29 million development.
South of Scotland Enterprise approved £18.3 million of funding for 648 projects during 2025–26.
Those are substantial sums in the regional economy, but the £31.8 billion pipeline is several orders of magnitude larger.
Delivering it would consequently depend primarily on private and national-scale investment rather than the ordinary capital budgets of the two councils or the enterprise agency.
Public Money Is Already Being Used to Unlock Private Investment
The Center Parcs structure shows how some of the larger opportunities may be financed.
Approximately £30 million of public support is being used for enabling infrastructure around a project estimated at more than £450 million.
The Competition and Markets Authority’s Subsidy Advice Unit was asked to examine whether the proposed support complied with the Subsidy Control Act.
The assessment submitted by South of Scotland Enterprise said the development would not proceed in the same form without the public subsidy because Center Parcs would otherwise have to finance the enabling infrastructure itself.
The stated intention is therefore to use relatively limited public capital to unlock a much larger private investment.
Similar structures are likely to become relevant elsewhere in the 202-project pipeline where road access, utilities, site remediation or other enabling works determine commercial viability.
That creates a second figure beneath the headline £31.8 billion: how much public money would be required to make the potential private investment possible.
The published announcement does not yet provide that total.
The Jobs Figures Depend on the Projects Actually Proceeding
The 73,900 construction job years and 7,900 operational jobs should also be read as scenario outputs rather than existing vacancies.
Center Parcs illustrates both the usefulness and the limitations of such estimates.
The £450 million development is expected to support 750 to 800 construction jobs and around 1,200 permanent roles.
Those figures now sit behind a project under construction, although the permanent jobs will not exist at scale until the resort opens.
Chapelcross, by comparison, is associated with developer forecasts of hundreds of construction and operational jobs but remains at planning stage.
If a proposed project does not proceed, its projected employment disappears from the regional total with it.
A useful reading of the new study will therefore require the jobs estimate to be separated according to project maturity as well as sector.
The Region Does Have a Growing Base of Delivered Investment
There is evidence that the South of Scotland has increased its investment activity independently of the new £31.8 billion forecast.
SOSE says it supported 2,282 organisations in 2025–26, approved £18.3 million across 648 projects and helped create or safeguard 749 jobs.
The agency says its investments generated £3.33 of economic contribution for every pound invested, equivalent to almost £61 million.
Other projects currently advancing include the Center Parcs resort, the Pickstock beef plant, the Kight PowerHub battery-manufacturing proposal in Dumfries and the Caerlee Mill Bike Campus.
Kight PowerHub is expected by SOSE to create up to 700 skilled jobs if the proposed manufacturing operation develops as planned. SOSE previously provided £233,000 towards development of the company’s technology.
These projects show that the regional development programme is not beginning from zero.
They do not establish that all 202 opportunities will reach the same stage.
The £31.8 Billion Figure Is a Planning Tool Before It Is an Economic Outcome
The Regional Transformational Opportunities exercise has a precedent elsewhere in Scotland.
Highlands and Islands Enterprise has used similar work to identify long-term opportunities in offshore wind, hydrogen, space and other industries.
The purpose is partly to allow governments, enterprise agencies, colleges and infrastructure providers to prepare for development before private investment is finalised.
Used in that way, the South of Scotland figure has value even if not every project proceeds.
A transport authority can see where future demand may arise. Colleges can examine potential skills requirements. Housing planners can identify communities likely to face pressure. Electricity-network operators can consider future generation and demand.
The risk comes when a long-range opportunity pipeline is read as though it were a portfolio of financed projects.
SOSE itself does not make that claim.
The Full Report Will Determine How Much of the Pipeline Can Be Tested
The most important document is therefore still to come. The Scottish Government says the full South of Scotland Regional Transformational Opportunities report will be published in the week beginning 12 October.
Sources
£32billion investment pipeline puts South of Scotland on map for investment
South of Scotland Enterprise, 5 October 2026
https://www.southofscotlandenterprise.com/news/regional-transformational-opportunities
DFM highlights £32 billion opportunity for South of Scotland
Scottish Government, 5 October 2026
https://www.gov.scot/news/dfm-highlights-32-billion-opportunity-for-south-of-scotland/
South of Scotland Regional Economic Strategy
South of Scotland Regional Economic Partnership, 30 September 2021
https://www.southofscotlandenterprise.com/media/ylhoz1xp/south-of-scotland-regional-economic-strategy.pdf
Convention of the South of Scotland minutes: January 2026
Scottish Government, 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/convention-of-the-south-of-scotland-minutes-january-2026/
Regional Skills Assessments
Skills Development Scotland, 28 October 2025
https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we-do/skills-planning/regional-skills-assessments
Rural and Islands Housing Action Plan — Housing and Local Economies
Scottish Government, 13 October 2023
https://www.gov.scot/publications/rural-islands-housing-action-plan/pages/9/
Center Parcs Scottish Borders
Center Parcs, current 2026
https://www.centerparcsscotland.co.uk/
Scotland’s first Center Parcs to create 1,200 jobs
Scottish Government, 18 March 2026
https://www.gov.scot/news/scotlands-first-center-parcs-to-create-1-200-jobs/
Referral of the proposed subsidy to Center Parcs Scotland Limited by South of Scotland Enterprise
Competition and Markets Authority Subsidy Advice Unit, 2026
https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/referral-of-the-proposed-subsidy-to-center-parcs-scotland-limited-by-south-of-scotland-enterprise
Major new beef facility to create jobs, cut carbon and keep more value in Scotland’s rural economy
South of Scotland Enterprise, 16 September 2026
https://www.southofscotlandenterprise.com/news/pickstock-telford
SOSE welcomes major new energy investment as Dumfries factory set to create 700 jobs
South of Scotland Enterprise, 18 March 2026
https://www.southofscotlandenterprise.com/news/kight-powerhub-dumfries
South of Scotland economy gathers momentum as SOSE support reaches record high
South of Scotland Enterprise, 17 September 2026
https://www.southofscotlandenterprise.com/news/annual-report-2526
Council Sets out Dumfries and Galloway Priorities for National Infrastructure Plan
Dumfries and Galloway Council, 26 March 2026
https://www.dumfriesandgalloway.gov.uk/news/2026/council-sets-out-dumfries-galloway-priorities-national-infrastructure-plan
Capital Investment Programme Delivering Major Projects and Long-Term Benefits Across Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfries and Galloway Council, 9 June 2026
https://www.dumfriesandgalloway.gov.uk/news/2026/capital-investment-programme-delivering-major-projects-long-term-benefits-across-dumfries-galloway
Borders Innovation Park development progressing as City Region Deal marks mid-point of 15-year programme
Scottish Borders Council, 25 February 2026
https://www.scotborders.gov.uk/news/article/4912/borders-innovation-park-development-progressing-as-city-region-deal-marks-mid-point-of-15-year-programme
Update — Borders Railway Business Case and Feasibility Work
Scottish Borders Council, 25 February 2026
https://www.scotborders.gov.uk/news/article/4911/update-borders-railway-business-case-and-feasibility-work
Connecting to the grid has to work for investment, not hold it back
National Energy System Operator, 19 August 2026
https://www.neso.energy/news/connecting-grid-has-work-investment-not-hold-it-back
Scottish boundaries — Electricity Ten Year Statement
National Energy System Operator, current 2026
https://www.neso.energy/publications/electricity-ten-year-statement-etys/electricity-transmission-network-requirements/scottish-boundaries
National Planning Framework 4 — Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment
Scottish Government
https://www.gov.scot/publications/national-planning-framework-4/
