Who Gets the Fuel First? Inside Scotland’s Plans for a Serious Supply Shortage

In a severe fuel shortage, emergency vehicles could receive priority at designated filling stations while purchases by ordinary motorists were restricted. Bulk deliveries could be directed towards utilities and public transport, and diesel prioritised for commercial vehicles carrying food and health supplies. Scotland’s requirement for delivered fuel reaches much further than the forecourt.

In a severe fuel shortage, an ambulance and an ordinary motorist arriving at Scottish filling stations could be operating under different rules.

Emergency and critical-service vehicles can be given priority access to designated filling stations. Public purchases can be limited. Bulk fuel can be directed towards emergency services, utilities and public transport, while road diesel can be prioritised for commercial vehicles supporting food and health supply chains.

The powers are contained in Britain’s National Emergency Plan for Fuel. They describe the measures available after a disruption has become serious enough that normal commercial distribution can no longer be relied upon to determine where all available fuel goes.

Scotland enters such planning with substantial requirements outside ordinary private motoring. More than 127,000 occupied households were recorded in the 2022 Census Oil central-heating category. Scottish farm machinery remains overwhelmingly diesel-powered. ScotRail’s current contract specifies approximately 35 million litres of marked gas oil each year for diesel railway vehicles. Most of the CalMac fleet uses marine gas oil, while diesel generating stations remain available on several island electricity systems when network conditions require them.

Before Fuel Is Rationed

Formal restrictions on motorists sit towards the more severe end of the emergency arrangements.

Earlier responses are intended to keep the existing distribution system operating.

Fuel companies can be permitted to share information and coordinate supplies. Government has access to a reserve fleet of tankers. Military personnel trained to drive fuel tankers can be deployed if commercial distribution capacity becomes insufficient. Tanker drivers’ hours can also be relaxed temporarily where circumstances justify it.

Emergency oil stocks can be released during a sufficiently serious international supply interruption.

Those measures are designed to increase supply or move existing fuel around the system before more restrictive controls become necessary.

If shortages deepen, a Designated Filling Station scheme can give emergency and critical-service vehicles priority access to selected forecourts. A Bulk Distribution Scheme allows fuel to be directed to critical services. A Commercial Distribution Scheme can prioritise road diesel for vehicles carrying goods in key supply chains. A Maximum Purchase Scheme can restrict the quantity bought by members of the public.

The emergency plan also provides for government allocation of imported petroleum products.

Scotland Has Already Seen Smaller Supply Disruptions

Scotland has already experienced events that show how the earlier stages of such a system operate.

When ScotRail’s contracted fuel supplier, Harvest Energy, entered administration in 2025, the company was no longer able to fulfil the railway’s fuel agreement.

ScotRail secured short-term supplies elsewhere before directly awarding a replacement contract to Highland Fuels. Its procurement documentation described the circumstances as involving extreme operational and contractual urgency and said continued fuel supply was necessary for the operation of critical national infrastructure.

The railway continued operating because another supplier was found.

Northern Scotland experienced a different disruption in January 2026.

Evidence gathered during the Competition and Markets Authority’s heating-oil investigation recorded Aberdeen, Peterhead and Inverness terminals being unavailable for approximately two weeks.

Distributors serving northern customers obtained fuel from farther south, including Grangemouth. Tanker journeys lengthened, increasing driver hours and transport distances.

The National Risk Register describes the same type of adjustment in its planning for a sudden failure within the downstream fuel industry. Following the loss of a significant operator or facility, industry could require several weeks to complete the rerouting of supplies, even though alternative arrangements would begin immediately.

A terminal closure therefore does not necessarily remove fuel from the Scottish market. It can change where a tanker must travel before it begins its delivery round.

Homes Supplied by Tanker

For many rural households, the final part of the energy network is a road delivery.

Scotland’s 2022 Census recorded 127,570 occupied households in its Oil central-heating category, equivalent to 5.1 per cent of occupied households nationally.

The largest proportions were found in rural and island authorities. In Na h-Eileanan Siar, 37.4 per cent of occupied households were recorded in the Oil category. Orkney stood at 28.1 per cent, Shetland at 23.4 per cent, Highland at 22.3 per cent, Aberdeenshire at 21.3 per cent and Dumfries and Galloway at 17.1 per cent.

UK Government estimates indicate that Orkney and Shetland have no domestic properties connected to mains gas. In Na h-Eileanan Siar, approximately 89 per cent of domestic properties were estimated to be outside the mains-gas network in 2024.

An oil-heated property holds fuel in a tank on the premises. That provides a buffer during a delivery interruption, but the length of that buffer depends on how much fuel remains when disruption begins.

There is no national Scottish dataset showing normal household tank levels at a given point in time, so the number of days homes could continue without further deliveries cannot be calculated from the available records.

The National Risk Register identifies domestic heating among the services affected by a major refined-fuel disruption. It also includes commercial premises and care homes requiring consistent temperatures, with consequences expected to become more severe during winter.

The heating-oil disruption earlier this year provided a shorter test of the market.

The Competition and Markets Authority found that average prices paid by Scottish customers rose from 69p a litre in February 2026 to 113p in March. Wholesale prices accounted for most of the UK-wide retail increase.

Scottish delivery geography also increased costs. The CMA calculated an average of approximately two heating-oil households per square kilometre, the lowest density among the four UK nations.

Scottish distributors described delivery rounds commonly covering 50 to 100 miles. Some remote deliveries could approach 200 miles.

When a northern terminal is unavailable, those journeys can begin farther from the customer.

Farms and the Food Supply

The published emergency arrangements explicitly provide for road diesel to be prioritised for commercial vehicles carrying food through key supply chains.

The treatment of primary agricultural production is less explicit in the public summary of the plan.

Scottish agriculture remains heavily dependent on diesel machinery. The machinery module of the 2024 Scottish Agricultural Census recorded diesel as the fuel used by 82 per cent of the machinery reported. More than 51,000 pieces of machinery were included in the survey.

Separate UK Government energy estimates place agricultural petroleum consumption in Scotland at approximately 252.8 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2024.

The figure reflects the machinery required for modern food production: tractors, loaders, cultivation equipment, harvesting machinery and other heavy plant.

The published National Emergency Plan identifies commercial vehicles supporting food supply chains as eligible for priority road diesel. It does not set out a separate guaranteed allocation for farms or primary food production.

The absence of a separate category does not establish that farms would be excluded. The public document is a summary of emergency powers rather than a complete operational schedule showing how individual businesses would be treated.

It does leave the relationship between production and distribution less clearly defined in the published arrangements.

Food distribution requires diesel for the vehicles carrying produce through the supply chain. Production can require fuel before anything is available for those vehicles to collect.

There is also no published Scotland-wide measure showing normal diesel stocks held on farms from which the duration of an interruption could be calculated.

Thirty-Five Million Litres for the Railway

Public transport is expressly included among the critical services that can receive priority bulk deliveries.

ScotRail’s latest contract specifies approximately 35 million litres of marked gas oil each year for diesel railway vehicles.

The requirement is spread across six principal delivery points.

Haymarket accounts for approximately 11 million litres annually. Inverness is specified at around seven million litres, Perth at 5.5 million, Eastfield and Corkerhill at four million each and Cadder at 2.5 million.

A further 200,000 litres of diesel is required annually for heating at Shields Depot in Glasgow.

Priority status for public transport provides a mechanism through which available bulk fuel could be directed towards railway operations during a shortage.

The published emergency plan does not guarantee that every existing service or timetable would continue during a severe national disruption.

Fuel for Lifeline Ferries

The same emergency category includes public transport at sea.

CalMac says it is custodian of 35 vessels. Thirty-one run on marine gas oil. Three more are marine-gas-oil/electric hybrids, while one is listed by the company as petroleum-fuelled.

Shetland Islands Council has separately estimated an annual requirement of approximately five million litres of marine gas oil for council vessels.

These fleets carry passengers, vehicles and freight between communities for which there is no alternative road connection.

The emergency plan provides a mechanism for public transport to receive priority bulk supplies. The public document does not specify individual ferry operators, routes or minimum service levels.

When Diesel Is Also Electricity

On several islands, diesel can also be required by the electricity system.

The Scottish Government identifies diesel generating stations on Shetland, Orkney, Lewis, South Uist, Barra and Islay.

They are backup plants rather than the normal primary source of electricity for those islands.

SSE recorded 137 GWh of generation from its Scottish island backup diesel sites during the year to March 2026, compared with 100 GWh the previous year. The company attributed the increase to transmission-line upgrade works.

Utilities are among the critical services that can receive priority bulk fuel deliveries under the emergency arrangements.

A period in which island generation was required at the same time as fuel distribution was constrained would place the electricity system alongside transport, heating and other users drawing from the same wider logistics network.

Emergency Stocks Do Not Sit at Every Forecourt

The UK maintains substantial emergency oil stocks.

At the end of 2025, official statistics recorded 11.2 million tonnes of oil stocks, approximately 85 per cent of them physically held in the UK.

The International Energy Agency requires the UK to maintain stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. Earlier official reporting placed UK stocks at around 120 days of net imports in July 2025.

These are national stockholding measures.

They do not mean that every Scottish filling station, farm, railway depot, ferry terminal or heating-oil distributor has three or four months of fuel stored nearby.

The total contains different products held at different locations. Part of the stockholding obligation can also be met through approved arrangements involving oil held outside the UK.

Releasing emergency stocks makes additional oil available to the national system. It must still be the required product and must still be transported from storage to the place where it will be used.

Grangemouth Changed the Route

Scotland’s fuel-distribution system changed substantially in April 2025 when Grangemouth stopped refining crude oil.

The site became an import terminal.

Before the closure, Petroineos described its replacement arrangements to government officials as a “virtual pipeline”.

The plans involved finished petroleum products sourced through its European trading operation, bulk storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, long-term shipping arrangements and products brought directly into the Grangemouth jetties.

The company also described approximately £30 million of investment in storage tanks and logistics at the site.

The UK Government’s security-of-supply assessment concluded that the import-terminal model was capable of meeting Scotland’s normal requirements.

Grangemouth is not Scotland’s only route for fuel. Other terminals, ports, depots and UK distribution networks remain part of the system.

The National Emergency Plan addresses the circumstances in which normal arrangements cease to be sufficient.

A failed supplier can be replaced. Tankers can be sent to another terminal. Reserve vehicles and drivers can expand distribution capacity. Emergency stocks can be released.

If those measures are insufficient, access can begin to change.

Emergency vehicles can receive priority at designated filling stations. Bulk deliveries can be directed towards utilities and public transport. Commercial vehicles carrying food and health supplies can receive priority diesel. Purchases by the public can be limited. Imported fuel can be formally allocated.

At that stage, the availability of fuel somewhere in the national system and the ability of every customer to obtain it are no longer the same thing.

Where Scotland Uses Liquid Fuel — and Why

The figures below describe separate systems and should not be added together.

Road-diesel use is highest in North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and South Lanarkshire. Dumfries and Galloway recorded approximately 145.3 ktoe in 2024, including about 76 ktoe attributed to heavy goods vehicles, the highest HGV figure among Scotland’s council areas.

Household oil produces a different geography. In the 2022 Census, 37.4 per cent of occupied households in Na h-Eileanan Siar were in the Oil category, followed by Orkney at 28.1 per cent, Shetland at 23.4 per cent, Highland at 22.3 per cent, Aberdeenshire at 21.3 per cent and Dumfries and Galloway at 17.1 per cent.

Among non-industrial residual-petroleum estimates, Aberdeenshire recorded approximately 98.6 ktoe in 2024, followed by Highland at around 77, Dumfries and Galloway at 49.2, and Perth and Kinross and the Scottish Borders at approximately 42.6 each.

Sources

UK Government. National Emergency Plan for Fuel: Summary of Response Tools. Updated 16 April 2024. Covers designated filling stations, bulk distribution, commercial distribution, purchase limits, reserve tanker arrangements and allocation of imported petroleum products.
National Emergency Plan for Fuel

Cabinet Office. National Risk Register 2025. Includes scenarios involving disruption to fuel infrastructure, regional supply interruptions and insolvency within the downstream fuel sector.
National Risk Register 2025

UK Government and Ofgem. Statutory Security of Supply Report 2025. Includes UK oil-supply arrangements, emergency stockholding and the assessment of Scotland’s supply following the conversion of Grangemouth from refinery to import terminal.
Statutory Security of Supply Report 2025

UK Government. Energy Trends: March 2026. Includes UK oil-stock statistics for the end of 2025.
Energy Trends: March 2026

Public Contracts Scotland. ScotRail Trains Ltd. Fuel Supply Agreement. August 2025. Records the administration of Harvest Energy, interim fuel arrangements and the replacement contract with Highland Fuels.
Public Contracts Scotland

Public Contracts Scotland. ScotRail Trains Ltd. Supply and Delivery of Bulk Fuels. Contract award notice, 4 September 2026. Specifies annual bulk-fuel requirements for the diesel railway fleet and Shields Depot.
ScotRail Bulk Fuels Contract Award

Competition and Markets Authority. Heating Oil Market Study. Final report, July 2026. Includes Scottish heating-oil prices, household density, delivery geography, supplier coverage and evidence concerning northern fuel terminals.
CMA Heating Oil Market Study

Competition and Markets Authority. Heating Oil Review: Consumer Protection Enforcement Case. 2026. Covers cancelled heating-oil orders and subsequent compensation arrangements.
CMA Heating Oil Consumer Protection Case

Scottish Government. Domestic Implications of Middle East Conflict for Scotland. 31 March 2026. Records consideration by the Scottish Government Resilience Room of possible effects on energy, food and fuel supplies.
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Emergency Management in Scotland

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