Scotland’s prison system has entered a new policy stage after consultation closed on proposals that could change the use of short custodial sentences, remand, community disposals and prisoner release arrangements.
The Scottish Government consultation closed at 23:55 on 20 August against a prison population that has been running well above the estate’s design capacity. The most recent published Scottish Government projection report recorded 8,466 people in custody on 1 July, while the population had reached a record 8,603 on 26 May. The prison estate’s stated design capacity is 7,805.
That May peak put the prison system 798 people above design capacity.
The distinction between the record figure and the latest confirmed count matters. Scotland is not known from the latest published figures to be holding more than 8,600 prisoners today, but the government’s own modelling shows that August 2026 could range between about 8,400 and 8,650, with further growth considered likely if current trends continue.
The consultation, published on 25 June, was presented as a response to what ministers describe as an unsustainable prison population. It draws on recommendations from the Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission and asks whether Scotland should change several points at which people enter, remain in or leave custody.
One proposal would require justice social work reports in all cases where a short custodial sentence is being considered. Another asks how confidence in community sentences could be improved, including through their availability, content and outcomes.
The consultation also examines remand and prisoner release arrangements, including the treatment of long-term prisoners serving determinate sentences of four years or more.
Those proposals sit against a prison population that has changed markedly over the past three years.
Scottish Government figures show that the prison population generally remained between about 7,350 and 7,650 from September 2020 until late 2022. It then began rising sharply. The population reached 8,361 in May 2024, fell after emergency early release measures, then climbed again through 2025 and into 2026.
The government has already altered release arrangements several times in an effort to control pressure on the estate.
Emergency early release in summer 2024 led to 477 people being released. Further legislation changed the release point for eligible short-term prisoners from 50% to 40% of sentence, taking effect in February 2025. Another emergency early release programme ran from November 2025 to April 2026 and released 614 people.
A further change, known as STP30, moved the release point for some eligible prisoners serving sentences of less than four years from 40% to 30%. Releases under that measure began in May and June this year. The Scottish Prison Service says 52 people were released in the first tranche alone.
Despite those interventions, the prison population reached 8,603 in May before falling to 8,466 by 1 July.
The pressure is not being driven evenly across the prison population.
The government says long-term prisoners now make up 36% of the population and that this proportion is expected to increase. It also says the average custodial sentence in Scotland rose by 37% between 2014-15 and 2023-24, partly because a greater proportion of serious crime has been prosecuted in court.
Remand remains another major component.
On 1 July, 2,217 people were being held on remand, while 6,249 were serving sentences. The remand population has generally remained between about 2,000 and 2,300 since its peak of 2,360 in May 2024.
That means overcrowding cannot be explained simply by short sentences.
A substantial part of the pressure comes from people waiting for cases to conclude, combined with a growing population serving longer sentences.
The Scottish Government itself acknowledges the operational consequences. Its consultation says overcrowding is placing pressure on staff, restricting rehabilitation and purposeful activity, and creating risks to the Scottish Prison Service’s ability to maintain safe and lawful prisons. It also points to the increasing complexity of the population, including serious organised crime, substance misuse, mental-health needs, social-care needs and an ageing prisoner population.
That raises a harder question than whether another tranche of early release can temporarily reduce the headcount.
Scotland has repeatedly used emergency or accelerated release measures to create space. The new consultation instead asks whether demand for custody should be reduced earlier in the criminal justice process, through sentencing, remand decisions and community-based interventions.
A second justice consultation closed on the same day.
The statutory review of Scotland’s National Strategy for Community Justice also closed on 20 August. That strategy is built around the principle that prison remains necessary for serious offending and people who present significant risk, while community interventions can in some cases reduce reoffending more effectively than custody.
Its review asks about early intervention, diversion from prosecution and the future direction of community justice over the next three to five years.
Taken together, the two consultations indicate that ministers are considering changes at both ends of the system: reducing unnecessary entry into custody while altering how some prisoners move through and out of it.
There is no guarantee that every proposal consulted upon will become law.
Nor is there evidence that sentencing reform alone would return the prison population below design capacity. The government’s July projections show a wide range of possible outcomes. By March 2027, the average daily prison population could be anywhere between about 8,100 and 9,150 depending on court activity, remand flows and other factors.
Even the bottom of that range would remain above the estate’s stated design capacity.
That leaves ministers with a problem which cannot be solved solely by changing one release date or building one additional prison.
The system is carrying more people, more remand prisoners, longer sentences and increasingly complex needs, while attempts to create capacity through early release have so far provided only temporary relief.
The consultation period is now over.
The next stage will show whether the government intends to make structural changes to sentencing and release policy, or whether Scotland continues managing prison overcrowding principally through periodic interventions after the pressure has already reached the prison gates.
Sources
Scottish Government — Prison Population And Penal Reform: Working Towards A Sustainable Prison Population, published 25 June 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/penal-reform-working-towards-sustainable-prison-population-consultation/
Scottish Government — Introduction: Prison Population And Penal Reform
https://www.gov.scot/publications/penal-reform-working-towards-sustainable-prison-population-consultation/pages/1/
Scottish Government — Part 1: Short Sentences, Remand And Community Sentences
https://www.gov.scot/publications/penal-reform-working-towards-sustainable-prison-population-consultation/pages/2/
Scottish Government — Part 2: Prisoner Release Arrangements
https://www.gov.scot/publications/penal-reform-working-towards-sustainable-prison-population-consultation/pages/3/
Scottish Government — Scottish Prison Population Projections: July 2026, published 30 July 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-prison-population-projections-july-2026/
Scottish Government — Safer Communities And Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: June 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-and-justice-statistics-monthly-data-june-2026/pages/statistics-on-prisons/
Scottish Prison Service — Data, Research And Evidence: Prison Population
https://www.sps.gov.uk/about-us/transparency/data-research-and-evidence
Scottish Government — National Strategy For Community Justice: Review Consultation, published 25 June 2026
https://www.gov.scot/publications/national-strategy-community-justice-review-consultation-2/
