Government figures show a sharper fall than across the UK, while Scotland’s grant and loan programme reports increased completions over a different period.
Scotland recorded 2,064 certified heat-pump installations in existing homes in the first half of 2026, down from 2,903 a year earlier, according to Modern Scot’s calculation from UK government deployment tables. The reduction of 839 installations amounts to 28.9%, compared with a 22% decline across the UK.
The figures, published on 10 September, cover domestic retrofits certified through the Microgeneration Certification Scheme, including installations financed privately and through government programmes. They exclude new buildings and installations outside the certification scheme, so do not count every heat pump installed in Scotland.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero classifies the series as official statistics in development, subject to revision. September’s release revised earlier figures slightly upwards after methodological improvements.
The Scottish Government’s Heat in Buildings progress report, published on 2 October, records an earlier downturn in its broader domestic certification series: 6,411 installations in calendar year 2025, against 7,357 in 2024, a fall of about 13%. That series has wider coverage than the UK department’s retrofit figures.
A growing scheme within a shrinking market
In the same October report, energy minister Stephen Gethins said the Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan scheme had supported its highest annual number of heat pumps. The underlying awards records show how that can coexist with a falling market.
For the financial year from April 2025 to March 2026, the scheme recorded 2,639 heat-pump measures, up from 2,568 in the previous financial year. Modern Scot calculated those totals by adding the air-source, ground-source, water-source, hybrid and replacement heat-pump categories. The largest category, air-source heat pumps, increased from 2,431 to 2,573. The totals include replacements and do not measure first-time adoption.
Those records recognise a measure when full funding has been paid for all the measures on its application. The UK deployment statistics assign installations to the date on their certification record. The financial-year scheme totals and calendar-half-year market figures cover different periods, populations and counting dates; they cannot be subtracted to estimate privately financed installations.
Across all improvements, the Home Energy Scotland awards records associate £44.7 million in grant and loan funding with applications completed in 2025/26, compared with £53.2 million in 2024/25. These totals cover the programme’s technologies, including insulation; they are not a heat-pump-only budget or the value of new funding commitments.
The October report attributes falling overall applications to the removal of eligibility for solar measures between 2023 and 2024. It also records fewer households using Home Energy Scotland’s advice service: 87,762 in 2025/26, against 95,781 the previous year. Officials suggest government controls on marketing spending and reduced promotion may have contributed to lower demand for advice. Neither statement quantifies the causes of the heat-pump installation decline.
The cost before and after installation
Current Home Energy Scotland rules offer eligible owner-occupiers up to £7,500 towards a heat pump, with a further £7,500 available as an optional interest-free loan. Qualifying rural and island properties can receive a £1,500 uplift to the heating grant. Separate support is available for energy-efficiency improvements. Applicants do not have to receive benefits, but the property must be their only or main private residence.
Funding is allocated on a first-come, first-served basis, subject to availability, and is reserved when a written offer is issued. Installation work must wait for that offer. The current scheme supports heat pumps meeting all the home’s heating and hot-water requirements; hybrid systems and air-to-air heat pumps are excluded.
The current process also allows a deposit payment of up to 60% of funding for the material costs of renewable systems. Homeowners have nine months after signing their agreement to complete installations and submit a final claim. Payments can be claimed as individual measures are completed.
Energy Saving Trust puts the typical cost of an air-source installation at around £12,000, while stressing that property size, equipment and radiator upgrades affect the final bill. Its guidance, updated on 20 October, says running costs also depend on radiator sizing, controls, electricity tariffs and the heating system being replaced. A purchase grant does not determine those later costs.
The Climate Change Committee identified that continuing problem in its Scottish progress assessment published in February. Although it welcomed UK measures to remove some levies from energy bills, it said the electricity-to-gas price ratio remained high enough to prevent many properties realising lower running costs from heat pumps. The committee also called for longer-term funding certainty, identifying the development of the market as a continuing policy challenge. That was an assessment of household economics, rather than an explanation of the subsequently recorded 2026 fall.
Consumer Scotland’s earlier research provides evidence of obstacles beyond the purchase price. Its May 2025 report drew on 24 interviews with Scottish owner-occupiers who had installed heat pumps, solar panels or both. Participants described difficulties finding installers, disruptive work and complicated funding applications. Some took loans elsewhere at higher interest rates rather than repeat a process they found time-consuming.
The interviews were conducted in 2024 and involved people who had completed installations. Consumer Scotland said Energy Saving Trust had since changed the service to address some of the difficulties identified. The study cannot establish how common those problems are among today’s applicants or why households did not proceed this year.
Different homes, different work
A Scottish research review published in June examined another part of that process: how much insulation and other building work should accompany a change of heating. BRE researchers working for ClimateXChange reviewed published evidence and interviewed seven experts. They found no single optimum approach covering Scotland’s different homes and household circumstances.
Some studies assessed whether a heat pump could maintain an adequate indoor temperature; others assessed whether it could do so without increasing running costs. Better insulation can reduce peak heating demand and bills, but the review also identified system design, radiator upgrades, commissioning and aftercare as relevant to performance. It recommended flexibility and more extensive support for households in, or at significant risk of, fuel poverty.
The review called for further modelling using Scottish housing characteristics. It did not measure the reasons behind the latest installation figures. The next UK quarterly deployment release is scheduled for December, providing the next official test of whether the decline continued beyond June.
Sources
Heat pump deployment statistics: June 2026 — summary
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 10 September 2026.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/heat-pump-deployment-statistics-june-2026/heat-pump-deployment-statistics-june-2026-summary
Heat pump deployment tables, quarter 2, 2026
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 10 September 2026.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6aa1590392e72b8ac437efd7/heat-pump-deployment-tables-q2-2026.xlsx
Heat in Buildings: progress report 2026
Scottish Government, 2 October 2026.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/heat-buildings-progress-report-2026/
Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan Scheme: awards
Scottish Government, updated 23 June 2026.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/home-energy-scotland-grant-and-loan-scheme-awards/
Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan
Home Energy Scotland, accessed 21 October 2026.
https://www.homeenergyscotland.org/home-energy-scotland-grant-loan
Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan: terms and conditions
Home Energy Scotland, accessed 21 October 2026.
https://www.homeenergyscotland.org/home-energy-scotland-grant-loan-terms-conditions
Air source heat pumps: costs, savings and benefits
Energy Saving Trust, updated 20 October 2026.
https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/air-source-heat-pumps/
Progress in reducing emissions in Scotland — 2025 report to Parliament
Climate Change Committee, 25 February 2026.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-reducing-emissions-in-scotland-2025/
Heat in Buildings — supporting the rollout of heat pumps and solar PV in Scotland
Consumer Scotland, 15 May 2025.
https://consumer.scot/publications/heat-in-buildings-supporting-the-rollout-of-heat-pumps-and-solar-pv-in-scotland-html/
Balancing investment in clean heat and energy efficiency in Scottish housing retrofit
ClimateXChange and BRE, 3 June 2026.
https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/publications/balancing-investment-in-clean-heat-and-energy-efficiency-in-scottish-housing-retrofit/
