Sir Tom Hunter has argued that Scotland risks pushing away the people who fund public services, but one striking claim about 250 taxpayers paying 60 per cent of Scotland’s income tax is not supported by official figures.

Sir Tom Hunter has put Scotland’s tax debate back where it is most uncomfortable: not in slogans about fairness or growth, but in the numbers that fund the state. The Scottish entrepreneur’s broader argument is familiar and serious. Scotland, he says, should be more welcoming to entrepreneurs, wealth creators and investment. His recent Hunter Foundation backed paper on Singapore argued for lower taxes, a stronger growth strategy, reform of public services and a clearer economic plan for Scotland.

But a separate claim, circulated from an appearance on Go Radio, has drawn sharp scrutiny. In a clip from The Go Radio Business Show, Hunter is quoted saying: “We can get 250 people in a room at Gleneagles who are paying 60% of all the income tax in Scotland.” The quote also appeared in Go Radio social media material linked to the programme.

The claim matters because it is vivid. It suggests that Scotland’s public finances rest not merely on a narrow tax base, but on a few hundred individuals, small enough to fit in a hotel conference room. If true, it would be one of the most important facts in Scottish public finance. It would mean the country’s health service, schools, social care and civil administration were unusually exposed to the decisions of a tiny group of very high earners.

The official data does not support that conclusion.

HMRC’s Scottish Income Tax outturn for 2023 to 2024 says Scotland raised £17.1 billion in non savings, non dividend income tax from 2.923 million Scottish taxpayers. In that year, additional and top rate taxpayers made up 1.2 per cent of Scottish taxpayers and paid 20.4 per cent of Scottish income tax. Higher and top rate taxpayers together made up 20.4 per cent of Scottish taxpayers and paid 66.2 per cent of the tax.

That is a highly concentrated tax base. It is not, however, 250 people paying 60 per cent.

The arithmetic is unforgiving. Sixty per cent of £17.1 billion is about £10.3 billion. If 250 people paid that sum between them, each would have to pay roughly £41 million in Scottish income tax. That would require taxable incomes vastly beyond the ordinary shape of Scotland’s income tax base. HMRC’s published figures for top rate taxpayers point instead to a much larger group paying a much smaller average amount than the Gleneagles figure implies.

The more accurate version of Hunter’s concern is still substantial. Scotland is reliant on higher earners. The Scottish Government’s own tax strategy for 2024 to 2025 said Scottish income tax was forecast to raise £19.1 billion, with higher, advanced and top rate taxpayers expected to make up 22 per cent of all taxpayers and 69 per cent of Scottish income tax raised.

That is the real argument. Scotland depends heavily on people above the higher rate threshold, not simply on a handful of billionaires or ultra high net worth individuals. It is a broader professional and business tax base: senior clinicians, executives, business owners, entrepreneurs, lawyers, engineers, finance workers, technology specialists, energy professionals and others whose incomes fall into the higher, advanced and top rate bands.

The distinction is important because political debate is damaged when a true concern is carried by an inaccurate number. If Scotland is over reliant on a relatively small portion of its taxpayers, that is a legitimate matter for scrutiny. If higher earners are mobile, discouraged, or inclined to shift income, residence or investment elsewhere, that should be examined calmly. But if the public is told that 250 individuals pay 60 per cent of income tax, the scale of concentration is exaggerated beyond the published evidence.

Hunter’s wider economic critique has context. In the Hunter Foundation paper Lessons from Singapore for Scotland’s Economy, he argued that Scotland’s economy has been in managed decline, that productivity is weaker than Singapore’s, that Scotland needs a long term economic plan, and that lower taxes could help attract entrepreneurs and wealth creators. The report compared Singapore’s productivity per worker at about £100,000 with Scotland’s £57,000 and noted Singapore’s top tax band of 24 per cent against Scotland’s 48 per cent.

Those are arguments worth debating on their merits. Scotland does need growth. It does need stronger productivity. It does need to understand whether its tax structure encourages or deters investment, effort and enterprise. It also needs to fund public services in a country with an ageing population, rising health and care pressures, and deep regional differences in need.

What the Go Radio claim shows is how easily Scotland’s tax debate slips from diagnosis into theatre. A room of 250 people at Gleneagles is an arresting image. It is also, on the available data, the wrong image. The published figures suggest a more complicated country: millions of taxpayers, a sizeable higher earning group, and a very heavy dependence on the upper fifth of the tax base.

That conclusion should satisfy neither side entirely. Those who favour higher taxes on wealth and income cannot ignore the concentration of receipts among higher earners. Those who argue for lower taxes should not rely on numbers that collapse under inspection. Scotland’s public finances are too serious for decorative arithmetic.

The real question is not whether 250 people pay for Scotland. They do not. The question is whether Scotland can build a tax system broad and resilient enough to fund public services without discouraging the work, enterprise and investment on which those services also depend.

That is a harder question. It does not fit neatly into a radio clip. It is, regrettably, the one Scotland actually has to answer.

SOURCES:

Go Radio / The Go Radio Business Show, clip and social media material quoting Sir Tom Hunter saying that 250 people in a room at Gleneagles pay 60 per cent of Scotland’s income tax.

HMRC, Scottish Income Tax HMRC Annual Report 2025, including 2023 to 2024 Scottish income tax outturn of £17.1 billion from 2.923 million taxpayers.

HMRC, Scottish Income Tax Outturn Statistics 2023 to 2024, including the distribution of receipts by taxpayer band.

Scottish Government, Scotland’s Tax Strategy: Building on our Tax Principles, 2024 to 2025 tax base figures.

Scottish Government, Scottish Income Tax 2025 to 2026 factsheet, Scottish Fiscal Commission forecast of just under £20.5 billion in Scottish income tax for 2025 to 2026.

The Hunter Foundation / Oxford Economics, Lessons from Singapore for Scotland’s Economy, April 2025.