The latest figures for 16 ScotWind projects show more money projected for the Scottish supply chain than three years ago, but total project expenditure has grown much faster. Manufacturing and fabrication account for only 20 per cent of the commitments allocated to Scotland, while the Scottish Government says existing employment statistics cannot identify the number of supply-chain jobs created directly by ScotWind.
Scotland’s projected share of expenditure from 16 ScotWind developments has fallen from 36 per cent to 29 per cent since 2023, even as the amount developers commit to spending in Scotland has increased.
The change is recorded in the latest Supply Chain Development Statement updates submitted by ScotWind developers to Crown Estate Scotland and in subsequent Scottish Government answers to Parliament. The 16 projects now carry total reported project expenditure of £88.6 billion, an increase of £23.4 billion from the equivalent 2023 position. Within that total, projected Scottish supply-chain expenditure has risen by about £2.3 billion, from £23.3 billion to £25.6 billion.
The two numbers have therefore moved in the same direction but at markedly different speeds. Scotland is projected to receive more expenditure in cash terms, while receiving a smaller proportion of a considerably larger project bill.
Crown Estate Scotland’s own July announcement puts the Scottish commitment at £25.5 billion rather than the £25.6 billion subsequently used by the Scottish Government in parliamentary answers. The difference is small and appears within the presentation and rounding of the latest dataset, but the Government’s £25.6 billion and £88.6 billion figures are the basis for its stated 29 per cent share.
Where the Scottish share is concentrated
The aggregate figure also conceals large differences between the stages of an offshore wind project. In an August parliamentary answer, the Scottish Government said the latest statements allocate 62 per cent of development commitments to Scotland and 70 per cent of operations commitments. Installation stands at 36 per cent.
Manufacturing and fabrication stands at 20 per cent.
That category covers the industrial portion of offshore wind development in which much of the competition for long-term supply-chain capacity is concentrated: the manufacture and fabrication of structures and components required to build projects rather than the professional, consenting and operational activity around them. The figures do not establish where individual contracts will ultimately be placed, but they show the geographical allocation developers are currently prepared to enter as commitments in their ScotWind statements.
The Scottish Government has pointed to a further £10.5 billion of possible Scottish manufacturing expenditure contained in developers’ higher “ambition” figures. Those figures are not the same as commitments. Crown Estate Scotland’s own SCDS rules describe an ambition as expenditure that could be achieved if assumptions made by a developer are met, while a commitment is the figure against which the project’s contracted position is ultimately tested.
Keeping those categories separate is particularly important while most ScotWind projects remain in development. Crown Estate Scotland said in July that only one of the projects covered by the leasing round, West of Orkney, had secured the relevant consent at that point, while 14 applications were being progressed by the Scottish Government’s Marine Directorate as of 1 June.
What a ScotWind commitment actually binds
The Supply Chain Development Statement system is more substantial than a voluntary forecast, but it is not a record of expenditure already made.
Each project divides intended expenditure across four stages — development, manufacturing and fabrication, installation and operations — and four geographical areas: Scotland, the rest of the UK, the European Union and elsewhere. Developers can update the figures as projects mature, subject to Crown Estate Scotland accepting the update.
The contractual test comes later.
Before a developer can move from its option agreement to request a full seabed lease, it must submit a Contracted Position Statement. That statement records expenditure already incurred and future expenditure supported by finalised or well-advanced contracts. Crown Estate Scotland then compares that contracted position with the project’s current Supply Chain Development Statement.
The mechanism contains 16 separate tests, reflecting the four project stages across the four geographical areas. Crown Estate Scotland applies what it calls the Lowest Percentage Achievement test. If the lowest-performing category reaches at least 90 per cent but less than the full commitment, the payment is £50,000. Between 50 and 90 per cent it is £100,000. Between 25 and 50 per cent it is £250,000.
If the lowest-performing category falls below 25 per cent, the developer may not request the lease.
The £250,000 figure should therefore not be treated as the maximum consequence for severe under-delivery. At the bottom of the scale, access to the seabed lease required to build and operate the project is at stake.
The mechanism also has limits. Crown Estate Scotland confirmed in a February 2025 freedom-of-information response that the ScotWind SCDS does not require information on domestic content, job creation, pay and conditions or trade-union recognition. Its formal purpose is to collect anticipated supply-chain expenditure by project stage and geography.
The job number that cannot yet be separated
The absence of a job requirement has become more significant as ScotWind has moved from leasing announcements towards industrial delivery.
Asked in August for the latest estimate of the number of jobs created in Scotland’s supply chain as a direct result of ScotWind, the Scottish Government did not provide such a figure. Instead it cited Scotland’s Marine Economy Statistics, which estimated 4,400 people were directly employed by the Scottish offshore wind sector in 2023, compared with 3,900 in 2022.
The Government explicitly stated that those figures do not include a count of supply-chain jobs created directly as a result of ScotWind.
It also cited forward-looking estimates for the much wider offshore wind pipeline, including ScotWind, INTOG and test and demonstration projects. Those are scenario estimates of possible future employment and cannot establish how many ScotWind supply-chain jobs exist now.
The result is an unusual evidential position. Scotland now has increasingly detailed figures for where tens of billions of pounds of future ScotWind expenditure are committed by geography and project phase, but no corresponding official count isolating the supply-chain employment already created directly by the leasing programme.
A moving portfolio
The latest £25.5 billion to £25.6 billion Scottish figure also does not cover exactly the same portfolio as the headline numbers published when ScotWind was expanded to 20 projects.
The 2026 update covers 16 projects. Three projects awarded through the later ScotWind clearing process are due to provide their updates in autumn 2026. A twentieth project, CampionWind, had its option agreement terminated by Shell in late 2025.
That makes direct comparison with the earlier £28.8 billion of initial Scottish commitments across all 20 projects unsafe without adjusting for the different project set. The cleaner comparison is the one used by the Scottish Government: the same 16 projects in 2023 and 2026.
For those projects, the direction is now established. Scottish expenditure commitments rose by about £2.3 billion. Total expected project expenditure rose by £23.4 billion. The Scottish proportion consequently moved from 36 per cent to 29 per cent, while the latest stage-by-stage breakdown places one fifth of manufacturing and fabrication commitments in Scotland.
The next records will sharpen that picture. The three clearing projects are due to update their statements in autumn. As individual developments approach major contracting and lease decisions, their Contracted Position Statements will begin converting projected commitments into a record that can be compared with expenditure incurred and contracts actually secured.
Until then, £25.6 billion remains a commitment about where future expenditure is expected to fall, rather than an account of £25.6 billion already delivered into the Scottish economy.
Sources
ScotWind developers set out latest multi-billion-pound supply chain commitments
Crown Estate Scotland, 14 July 2026
https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/scotwind-developers-set-out-latest-multi-billion-pound-supply-chain-commitments
Supply chain information
Crown Estate Scotland, updated 14 July 2026
https://www.crownestatescotland.com/supply-chain-information
Written Question S7W-02088: ScotWind expenditure in Scotland
Scottish Parliament, answered 18 August 2026
https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/questions-and-answers?qry=S7W-02088
Written Question S7W-02093: ScotWind manufacturing and fabrication expenditure
Scottish Parliament, answered 21 August 2026
https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/questions-and-answers?qry=S7W-02093
Written Question S7W-02295: ScotWind supply-chain employment
Scottish Parliament, answered 26 August 2026
https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/questions-and-answers?qry=S7W-02295
Written Question S7W-02327: ScotWind projected expenditure
Scottish Parliament, answered 24 August 2026
https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/questions-and-answers?qry=S7W-02327
FOI 367: ScotWind Conditions
Crown Estate Scotland, 13 February 2025
https://www.crownestatescotland.com/news/foi-367scotwind-conditions
