Scottish Ministers have powers to restrict newly registered non-zero-emission buses from local services from a date no earlier than 2030. But research commissioned by Transport Scotland found a clear consensus that the earliest date is too soon and warned that smaller operators dependent on the second-hand market could be pushed out unless the transition is carefully managed.
On 25 March, Transport Scotland announced £45 million of new funding for zero-emission buses and coaches. On the same day, it published research examining whether Scotland was ready for the next stage of bus decarbonisation.
The two publications present rather different sides of the transition.
The £45 million award, made through the third Scottish Zero Emission Bus Challenge Fund, or ScotZEB3, will support 334 zero-emission vehicles (227 buses and 107 coaches) together with charging infrastructure. Funding was awarded to projects involving Rock Road, Stagecoach, Lothian, Ember and First Bus.
Transport Scotland commissioned engineering consultancy Sweco to obtain the views of bus operators and local transport authorities on the use of new powers contained in the Bus Services Act 2025. Those powers allow Scottish Ministers to specify a date, no earlier than 1 January 2030, after which certain newly registered buses producing specified tailpipe emissions could no longer be used on registered local services in Scotland. The legislation also allows ministers to create exemptions for particular vehicles or services.
The measure does not mean every diesel bus already operating in Scotland would have to disappear in 2030. The restriction concerns vehicles first registered on or after the date eventually specified by ministers. Existing vehicles could continue operating, subject to the eventual regulations.
That is particularly important for smaller operators, because some rely heavily on the second-hand market rather than routinely buying new vehicles.
Sweco’s study found a “clear consensus that 2030 is too early”, with an emerging preference for 2035. Local transport authorities generally favoured earlier implementation to meet environmental targets, while bus operators tended to favour later dates because of operational limitations, technology and the residual value of vehicles already in their fleets.
The difficulties identified extend well beyond the price of buying an electric bus.
Respondents cited the cost of zero-emission vehicles, shortage of skilled personnel, vehicle range, charging infrastructure and electricity-grid capacity. Transport Scotland’s published findings say rural operators can face particularly high charging-infrastructure costs because of geography, while long-distance services face additional problems around vehicle range and finding charging facilities along routes.
Grid capacity was identified as a constraint that operators and councils cannot themselves resolve. The study found that the combination of currently cost-effective zero-emission vehicles and available local grid capacity does not yet allow straightforward one-for-one replacement across the range of bus types, routes and distances represented in its sample. Rural operators also raised concerns about the resilience of charging infrastructure during power cuts.
The position of smaller operators produced one of the report’s strongest warnings.
Sweco found concern that the proposed regulation could disproportionately affect businesses dependent upon the second-hand vehicle market, saying some “could risk being pushed out of the market”. It recommended further examination of rural and isolated areas, where access to capital, grid capacity, staffing and charging infrastructure can present greater difficulties.
The research does not argue against zero-emission buses. The proposed direction of travel was generally welcomed by participants. Its conclusions instead point towards a phased implementation backed by finance and infrastructure rather than applying the earliest possible date uniformly across very different operators and parts of Scotland.
The scale of the existing transition also differs considerably across the sector.
Among the local transport authority fleets represented in the study, 94 per cent of vehicles were still diesel-powered, with only two councils operating electric buses for public bus services. Bus operators participating in the research were further ahead, with zero-emission vehicles making up about 20 per cent of their combined fleets. These figures relate to the organisations surveyed and are not a census of every bus operating in Scotland.
Sweco recommended a phased timetable, proportionate financial support and particular assistance for smaller operators. It also called for greater coordination between transport authorities, electricity-network operators and industry, and said nationwide implementation should be supported by long-term, ring-fenced funding and accessible finance.
That recommendation comes as the principal subsidy programme used to accelerate Scotland’s zero-emission bus transition reaches its final phase.
Transport Scotland describes ScotZEB3 as the third and final phase of the ScotZEB subsidy scheme. It also says the £45 million awards mark the conclusion of Scottish Government funding through this programme to support large operators in making the transition to zero-emission vehicles. Previous ScotZEB rounds and the Scottish Ultra Low Emission Bus Scheme have supported around 800 buses and associated infrastructure with £154 million of capital funding since 2020.
Scotland’s 2026-27 Budget allocates £85 million to low-carbon programmes, including measures supporting zero-emission vehicles and expansion of electric-vehicle charging infrastructure. Ministers are also still examining how the new bus regulation should operate.
The unresolved issue is about how the transition is financed and implemented across a highly uneven transport market.
That question arrives when Scotland’s bus network has already been contracting.
There were 334 million bus passenger journeys in Scotland in 2024-25, an increase of 2 per cent on the previous year but still 31 per cent below the peak recorded in 2007-08. More than half were made through the national concessionary travel schemes. The number of buses in operators’ fleets has fallen by 15 per cent since 2019-20, while the number of people employed in the industry has fallen by 10 per cent over the same period.
The position in rural Scotland is markedly different from the cities.
Transport Scotland’s 2024 household survey found that 17 per cent of people in remote rural areas had used a bus during the previous month, compared with 57 per cent in large urban areas. Satisfaction with public transport was 43 per cent in remote rural areas and 41 per cent in accessible rural areas, compared with 75 per cent in large urban areas.
The disappearance of an individual commercial operator would not automatically mean every route it ran disappeared. Councils have a duty to secure public transport services they consider necessary where those needs would not otherwise be met commercially, and they can subsidise operators to provide them. Local transport authorities also now have powers to operate their own bus services.
But replacing an operator in a thin rural market may be considerably more difficult than replacing capacity in a large city, particularly if the available replacement operators face the same vehicle, charging and grid constraints identified by Transport Scotland’s study. That is an inference from the combination of the Government’s rural transport figures and the obstacles identified by the commissioned research.
The Scottish Government has strong reasons for wanting the transition to succeed. Buses remain central to public transport in Scotland, while eliminating diesel tailpipe emissions can reduce both greenhouse-gas emissions and local air pollution. The latest ScotZEB funding will put hundreds more zero-emission vehicles into operation, including coaches intended for longer-distance and rural services.
But Transport Scotland’s own research suggests that the regulatory timetable cannot be considered separately from the electricity network, vehicle market, operator finances and geography of the services expected to comply with it.
Ministers have not yet selected the date. Transport Scotland said in March that the Scottish Government was continuing to examine its options, and the legislation expressly prevents the restriction from beginning before 1 January 2030.
That leaves time to address the weaknesses identified by the study.
It also makes the study’s central finding difficult to overlook.
The law allows Scotland to begin restricting newly registered non-zero-emission buses from 2030. The research commissioned to examine whether Scotland is ready found a clear consensus that 2030 is too early.
Sources
Transport Scotland — Bus Decarbonisation Study, published 25 March 2026
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/bus-decarbonisation-study/
Transport Scotland — Bus Decarbonisation Study: Introduction And Context
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/bus-decarbonisation-study/introduction-and-context-of-study/
Transport Scotland — Bus Decarbonisation Study: Summary Of Key Findings
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/bus-decarbonisation-study/summary-of-key-findings/
Transport Scotland — Bus Decarbonisation Study: Conclusions And Next Steps
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/bus-decarbonisation-study/conclusions-and-next-steps/
Transport Scotland — £45 Million For Zero Emission Buses, 25 March 2026
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/45-million-for-zero-emission-buses/
Transport Scotland — Scottish Zero Emission Bus Challenge Fund (ScotZEB)
https://www.transport.gov.scot/public-transport/buses/scottish-zero-emission-bus-challenge-fund/
UK Parliament — Bus Services Act 2025: Publications And Final Act
https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3910/publications
UK Parliament, Hansard — Use Of Zero-Emission Vehicles For Local Services In Scotland, 10 September 2025
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-09-10/debates/C47D99C8-4ADC-4917-A4A0-E0145AEE05FA/BusServices%28No2%29Bill%28Lords%29
UK Parliament — Bus Services Act 2025: Royal Assent And Parliamentary Stages
https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3910/stages
Transport Scotland — Scottish Transport Statistics 2025: Bus And Coach Travel
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/scottish-transport-statistics-2025/chapter-2-bus-and-coach-travel/
Transport Scotland — Transport And Travel In Scotland 2024: Public Transport
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/transport-and-travel-in-scotland-2024/public-transport/
Transport Scotland — Duties And Powers Of Local Transport Authorities To Support Bus Services
https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/high-level-overview-of-the-powers-available-to-local-transport-authorities-bus-powers-transport-scotland-act-2019/duties-and-powers-of-local-transport-authorities-to-support-bus-services/
Transport Scotland — Transport (Scotland) Act 2019 And Bus Services
https://www.transport.gov.scot/public-transport/buses/transport-scotland-act-2019-and-bus-services/
Scottish Government — Scottish Budget 2026-27: Transport
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2026-2027/pages/10/
